2022 Election Outlook: Georgia

It's Atlanta vs. Not-lanta yet again.

Georgia continues to hold the political spotlight after practically deciding the 2020 presidential election. In recent elections, politicians have learned that focusing on Atlanta is not enough to win the state, Georgia’s rural voters are its deciders. Let’s dive deep into how

Atlanta is Not Enough

Let’s recap the results of the 2020 presidential election as this incredibly close election helps illustrate Georgia’s political dynamics. Biden’s success in the Atlanta metropolitan region has been well documented. Most of the region’s 29 counties were once Republican strongholds that began flipping toward Democrats with Barack Obama’s candidacy. Hillary Clinton compounded on Obama’s successes by flipping Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry counties in 2016. While Biden failed to flip any new counties in the 2020 election, he further cemented Democratic strength in Atlanta by running up the numbers, becoming the first Democrat to gain over 70% of the vote in Fulton County since FDR in 1944.

Even though an increasing majority of Georgia voters live in or around Atlanta, Biden’s win was only possible due to his ability to keep the margins close in the more rural parts of the state, particularly in counties where White voters are in the minority. Of the sixteen minority-majority counties outside of the Atlanta metropolitan region, nine supported Joe Biden in 2020 and eight supported Stacey Abrams in 2018. This coalition of rural minority voters currently determines electoral control within Georgia.

Georgia’s Black Belt

“If you take away 15,000 Democratic votes from rural Georgia, Biden doesn’t win Georgia.”

-Manswell Peterson, a former Democratic candidate for GA Secretary of State

While not quite as distinct as in Mississippi and Alabama, the Black Belt stretches through the center of Georgia and holds many of the state’s more racially diverse counties. Democratic grassroots organizers have been investing in this unique human geography for a while and may have finally tapped in to a winning strategy:

“Georgia can be an example of what long-term planning and power building can bring about… The results of 2020 didn't happen because people got motivated and involved that January, it's a result of dedication and commitment over years of time… that’s not easy to do.” -Kelly Dietrich, founder and CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee

Voters in these areas struggle with food insecurity, low access to broadband internet, and low educational attainment, similar to many other rural areas across the country. While these needs align with Democratic priorities, these rural voters also often hold conservative cultural values that sometimes sit at odds with the party’s social policies. In reaction to Black American’s historic support for Democrats, there’s a nascent pull in some to think differently and entertain other candidates, regardless of their support for the Black community.

Ultimately, 90% of African Americans across the country vote together in supporting Democratic candidates. But rural Black voters are often forced to answer the question: is it worth supporting someone who may not support my identity if they share some of my other political ideals?