2022 Election Outlook: Pennsylvania
The Keystone state finds itself in the spotlight once again for its close election matchups.
Topline Takeaways
In the state’s governor’s race, polls show a wide gap between Democratic attorney general Josh Shapiro his opponent, election-denier Doug Mastriano.
John Fetterman’s “every county, every vote” strategy is upending Pennsylvania’s Senate Race as he makes inroads in traditional Republican strongholds.
Pennsylvania House Democrats have an uphill battle in the midterms as only five of their party’s incumbents are running in favorable districts.
Governor: Shapiro v. Mastriano
As current Democratic Governor Tom Wolf is set to retire, Democratic attorney general Josh Shapiro is expected to take his place as polls show a wide gap between him and his opponent Doug Mastriano. Media outlets have dubbed Doug Mastriano one of the worst candidates in this election cycle and it’s easy to see why. He’s well known within conspiracy circles, frequently sharing QAnon and 9/11 conspiracy theories. He attended the infamous January 6 rally that turned into a full-on insurrection. Worst of all, he’s all in on Christian nationalism, going as far as calling the separation of church and state a myth.
Instead of relying on his candidate to crash and burn Shapiro has meticulously campaigned across the state, venturing into the state’s interior where Republicans typically outnumber Democrats. Centre County holds the flagship campus of Pennsylvania State University, one of the largest universities in the United States by enrollment. For the past decade, the county has voted for Democrats in presidential elections and for Republicans in statewide elections (likely due to the lower turnout rates of young voters during midterm elections.) Shapiro recognized the opportunity here and has campaigned directly to students and faculty in hopes that this county can be the tipping point.
Senate: Fetterman v. Oz
Pennsylvania’s Senate race has completely flipped the typical election dynamic for both parties. Democratic Lieutenant Gov. John Fetterman hails from York county a reliably Republican stronghold. His challenger, infamous teledoc Dr. Mehmet Oz, grew up just across the state line in deep-blue Wilmington, Delaware and fits the mold of metropolitan Republicans of yesteryear.
For Oz to have any chance at winning this race, he needs to outperform Trump’s margins in the state’s Democratic strongholds. That’s because Fetterman is expected to outperform past Democrats in the state’s Republican strongholds due to his “every county, every vote” strategy. As outlined above, Pennsylvania Democrats tend to place a laser focus on northeast Pennsylvania where moderate voters regularly swing between the two major political parties. The tradeoff is that the western reaches of the state outside of Pittsburgh are typically left out in the cold for Republicans to snatch up. The Fetterman v. Oz match-up completely upends that dynamic as the blue-collar voters of Western Pennsylvania aren’t coalescing around Oz like they do other Republicans.
House Races Outlook
House Democrats face an uphill battle in Pennsylvania. Of the seven Democratic House incumbents, only five are running in districts that lean in their direction (in comparison, seven Republican incumbents are running in favorable districts).
PA-1, Fitzpatrick v. Ehasz: Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick faces re-election in a rare split-ticket district. Those Biden voters who sent him back to Washington may have second thoughts as abortion is expected to upend the dynamics of this race in suburban Bucks county.
PA-8, Cartwright v. Bognet: Another split ticket district, this time where Trump voters sent a Democrat to the House. Incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright will face off against Jim Bognet in what will be a rematch of the 2020 race. The key difference here is that this district got slightly less Trumpy after redistricting, giving Cartwright a chance for survival.
PA-7, Wild v. Scheller: Another 2020 rematch will be held as Incumbent Democrat Susan Wild takes on Lisa Scheller in the pivotal Lehigh Valley. This is a race where the winds are in Republicans’ favor: this district leans almost 5 points more toward Trump after redistricting and Wild only won her seat by a 3-point margin in the last election.
No Election Necessary: Three Republicans and one Democrat have already secured their seats in the US House as they are running unopposed in the general election. (And as you’d expect, those three Republicans are extremists who have supported things like overturning the results of the 2020 election.)