NE+WV: A Tale of Two Panhandles

West Virginia turns toward Trump, Nebraska turns away.

1. West Virginia’s two panhandles are not in sync.

This marks the first election in West Virginia’s history where the state’s northern and eastern panhandles are wrapped into the same congressional district. Previously, West Virginia’s northern panhandle was represented by Rep. David McKinley via WV-1 and the eastern panhandle was represented by Rep. Alex Mooney in WV-2. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that each panhandle supported its familiar incumbent.

WV-2 Republican Primary Results

Rep. Alex Mooney fought his way to a win primarily because his base turned out more forcefully than McKinley’s: the eastern panhandle tilted heavily toward Mooney while the northern panhandle was slightly more contested, with Mooney likely to win the state’s two northern most counties. Voters in the populous heart of the state were even more split between the two incumbents with Mooney just barely nabbing county-level wins by margins of 10 points or less.

West Virginia’s Congressional Primary Winners

2. West Virginia turns toward Trump, Nebraska turns away.

Incumbent Rep. David McKinley ran an explicitly “establishment-style” campaign, heavily leaning on his support of Biden’s infrastructure bill to turn out voters. Mooney bolted to McKinley’s right and fought hard to receive Trump’s endorsement. Not only did Republican voters in WV-2 turn away from McKinley’s relentless focus on infrastructure, they also turned away from the facts. McKinley supported Trump’s public policy positions while in Congress more often than Mooney, even despite McKinley’s high profile defections. West Virginia voters are clearly heeding the calls from Trump’s wing of the Republican Party while those in Nebraska are considering alternatives.

Jim Pillen’s win in Nebraska’s Republican gubernatorial primary is a solid gut punch for Trump. Pillen received the endorsement of Nebraska’s current term-limited governor Pete Ricketts and positioned himself as a more sensible alternative to the scandal-ridden Herbster. Many are pointing to Pillen’s win as a sign that Nebraska’s political machine is chugging along without Trump in the driver seat. (He also received the endorsements of former governor Kay Orr and former Huskers football coach Tom Osborne.) What’s most fascinating is that Pillen’s win isn’t necessarily a rebuke of Trump’s ideological stances but it is a clear push against Trump’s “kingmaker” status within the party.

(Jim Pillen is “proudly pro-life,” seeks to prevent the “imposition” of critical race theory on children and has an image of the “thin blue line” flag on his campaign website. His policy positions are practically identical to Trump’s.)

Nebraska’s Congressional Primary Winners

3. Nebraska’s candidates are defining the new center lane in national politics.

Let’s be very clear… Political centrism is no longer defined by those who anchor their political views to the ideological center. (Most of those “classically centrist” politicians have gone extinct after consistently losing elections.) Instead, it’s marked by a determination to speak faithfully across the aisle and an appetite for compromise, even if your party isn’t the “winner” at the end of the day.

It’s evidenced by Bacon’s clapback to his own party for the fury he received after voting in favor of Biden’s infrastructure bill. It’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Carol Blood speaking deliberately about meeting Nebraskans’ expectations in funding the police. It’s Republican primary candidate Brett Lindstrom supporting ways to make college more affordable to provide a stronger economic engine for the state. (Lindstrom beat both Herbster and Pillen in the counties surrounding the state’s most populous city: Omaha)

Most of Nebraska’s primary winners are running away from the ideologues of their respective parties and directly toward their voters. While the state has reliably supported Republicans for the past decade, Trump’s scorched-earth style of party leadership clearly isn’t resonating here like it is in other red states. Pillen and Bacon prove that Nebraskans want politicians who have the skills to govern rather than those who campaign simply to grab power for themselves.