Certified: California's 2021 Recall Election
Certified: California's 2021 Recall Election
See how the final results differ from Election Night reporting.
The results of California’s gubernatorial recall election were officially certified by the California Secretary of State on October 22, 2021. A total of 12.8 million votes were cast by California voters, a full 400,000 votes more than what was originally predicted as the expected vote by pollsters. Ultimately, 61% of California voters supported keeping Governor Gavin Newsom in office and voted “No” on the first question of the recall. (This is down from the 64% I initially reported a day after the election with 72% of the eventual vote counted. Check out election night analysis here.)
Most of the county-level shifts on the map since we last covered this election have been in favor of Republicans. Many of the counties in the northeastern corner of the state ultimately voted more strongly in favor of the recall than what was initially reported. A couple counties that originally appeared to narrowly vote “No” within the first 24 hours of the election, like Merced and Riverside, ultimately came out in favor of recalling Newsom. This ultimately expanded the map of “flipped” counties when comparing to the most recent presidential election: a total of six counties that previously voted for Biden opted to recall the current governor.
Meanwhile, the results for replacement candidates remained fairly stable. Larry Elder remains the clear favorite ultimately capturing 48% of the votes on the second ballot question. The one bright spot for Democrats: the second most favorable replacement was Democratic candidate Kevin Paffrath who ultimately took 9% of the vote. Paffrath managed to beat former Gov. Kevin Faulconer who came in third, a full 100,000 votes behind.