Certified: New Jersey's 2021 Gubernatorial Election
Trump may have been the dam preventing a red-wave in blue states.
Topline Takeaways
Donald Trump may have been the dam preventing a red-wave in blue states. Many counties that ultimately moved toward Republicans between the 2017 and 2021 governor’s races briefly lurched left in 2020 when Trump was on the ballot. When comparing this election to last year’s, 18 of New Jersey’s 21 counties swung to the right by double digits.
Republicans have gained a new stronghold in South Jersey. Jack Ciattarelli flipped three South Jersey counties, ultimately bringing the Republican party ahead in five out of six counties in the region. This was particularly important in down-ballot races as Democratic incumbent and State Senate President Steve Sweeney failed to win re-election as his district sits firmly within newly Republican territory.
While turnout was up compared to the last gubernatorial election, it was unevenly distributed throughout the state. Counties where Democrats regularly post large margins only saw single digit percentage increases in total votes while more sparsely populated counties where Republicans gained ground saw as much as a 30% increase in total votes since the last governor’s race in 2017.
Trump may have been the dam preventing a red-wave in blue states.
It’s a known fact in 2021 that most blue-state voters have a strong distaste for Donald Trump but that fact has muddied the waters on how these voters view the Republican party, particularly in local races. This election surprised many as it showed that several voters, particularly those in heavily liberal states, do not associate Trump with their local Republican party apparatuses. While still embracing a few controversial candidates, the New Jersey Republican party certainly isn’t quite as conservative or polarizing as the national party.
So when Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot and steers clear of high-profile campaign events, it de-fangs the Democratic strategy of using Trump as a boogeyman. It also allows Republican candidates to walk a tightrope of courting moderates with more compassionate rhetoric while dog-whistling toward Trump’s base. Much like Youngkin’s strategy in Virginia, it nearly worked for Ciattarelli, helping him take Republicans from their previous 14-point loss in 2017 to a 3-point nail biter this year.
South Jersey: The Florida of the Northeast
South Jersey is technically a peninsula, stretching out into the Atlantic Ocean with the Delaware River to its northeast and the Delaware Bay to its southeast. Driving toward the coast takes you from pine forests, through marshes and swampland, to some of the most visited beaches in the Northeast. Much like Florida, most of South Jersey is sparsely populated except for the busy beach towns along the coast. Also like Florida, South Jersey has historically leaned slightly toward Republicans and has tilted more heavily to the right throughout the Trump era.
Jack Ciattarelli managed to flip three South Jersey counties and helped swing all of them toward Republicans by a minimum of 10 points since the last gubernatorial election. These counties are filled with hard to classify “exurban” voters: voters that live close enough to commute to nearby cities like Philadelphia but live in areas that more closely resemble rural farmland. As a result, they often are forced to reckon with urban issues like traffic and crime but are also keenly attuned to more stereotypically rural issues like gun ownership. Republicans have done a fantastic job at building this coalition in South Jersey by backing candidates like Ciattarelli and truck driver Ed Durr, who beat State Senate President Steve Sweeney by successfully appealing to these tricky exurban voters.
Voter turnout continues to tick upward, just not evenly
This gubernatorial election saw nearly 500,000 more votes cast than in the previous race in 2017. As a result, statewide turnout of registered voters increased from 37% to 40% between the two governor’s races. This proved to be a headache for Democrats as Republican voters were more responsible for the increase in participation than Democratic ones. The counties that saw the highest increases in total votes were also among the most Republican. Ocean county, lying to the north of Atlantic City, is the state’s third largest county, saw an increase of 37% in its total vote and ultimately supported Ciattarelli by more than 35 points. Meanwhile, most of the counties in the Democratic stronghold lying between Newark and Trenton saw much more modest increases in total votes and a softening of Democratic margins.
Forecasting the Future: While Gov. Phil Murphy can enjoy being the first Democratic governor to win re-election in the state since 1977, this election has been a stark wake-up call for Democrats within the state and nationally. Some Democrats have blamed the poor performance on high property taxes brought on by the Trump-era cap on SALT deductions. (This issue is creating great headaches and divisions among the national party as the cap primarily affects high-earners, specifically in blue states like New Jersey.) Other have pointed fingers at the governor’s strict coronavirus response: while broadly popular among voters, those who opposed the mandates may have been more likely to show up to vote against Murphy. I’m a believer that South Jersey’s tilt away from Democrats is a signal that New Jersey Dems aren’t building a big enough tent. Even though the I-95 corridor between Trenton and Newark is the state’s population center, Democrats still need to play ball in the corners of the state to remain competitive and those corners are demonstrably more conservative than the Philly and New York City suburbs. Meanwhile, Republicans have spent the last decade organizing in South Jersey and are finally reaping the benefits. Ciattarelli has shown that once Republicans can corner the state’s corners, they don’t have to peel off much from the state’s central corridor to manufacture an upset.
Leftover Links
Check out this humorous take on South Jersey stereotypes to learn what makes the region so much different than the rest of the state.
Learn why New Jersey sits at the center of the heated debate among congressional Democrats to address the Trump-era cap on SALT deductions.
Figure out why Jack Ciattarelli waited 10 days before conceding defeat to Gov. Phil Murphy.