The Speaker of the House Vote, Explained
Rep. Kevin McCarthy has been elected Speaker of the House after fifteen rounds of voting.
The Basics
The first thing the US House must do when first convening (even before swearing in new representatives) is elect a Speaker of the House. In order to be named Speaker a nominee needs a majority vote from all members voting. Our magic majority number is 218 (although that can change if members vote “present” or fail to show up to vote at all.)
Following the recent House elections: Republicans have 222 House representatives. Democrats have 212 representatives. Republicans can pick the Speaker on their own since they have the votes within their party to do so.
The Holdouts
The following 20 House Republicans did not vote for either Kevin McCarthy or Hakeem Jeffries in the first eleven ballots, causing a stalemate:
Andy Biggs (AZ-05), Dan Bishop (NC-08), Lauren Boebert (CO-03), Josh Brecheen* (OK-02), Michael Cloud (TX-27), Andrew Clyde (GA-09), Eli Crane* (AZ-02), Byron Donalds (FL-19), Matt Gaetz (FL-01), Bob Good (VA-05), Paul Gosar (AZ-09), Andy Harris (MD-01), Anna Paulina Luna* (FL-13), Mary Miller (IL-15), Andrew Ogles* (TN-05), Scott Perry (PA-10), Matthew Rosendale (MT-02), Chip Roy (TX-21), Keith Self* (TX-03)
All of the above names in italics are current members of the House Freedom Caucus. Names with an asterisk* are newly elected freshmen that received money from or were endorsed by the House Freedom Fund. You see a trend? By the third ballot they coalesced around Rep. Jim Jordan (OH-04), the founding Chair of the Freedom Caucus in 2015. After many votes for Byron Donalds and Kevin Hern, six of the above holdouts have returned to voting Jim Jordan together on the thirteenth ballot.
So What Now?
Nothing can happen in the US House until a Speaker is chosen. The Speaker voting drama delayed the swearing in of new House members. (They cast their votes for Speaker as 'representatives-elect'.) The longest vote for Speaker of the House lasted for two months during the winter of 1856-57. 😬
Ballot-by-Ballot Breakdown
7th Ballot Highlights: Almost no vote change from the sixth ballot. Matt Gaetz switched his vote from Byron Donalds to Donald Trump and was the only member to do so. (Result: 212 for Jeffries, 201 for McCarthy, 19 for Donalds and 2 other votes.)
8th Ballot Highlights: The holdouts have started shifting their strategy. Two former Donalds votes, Lauren Boebert and Josh Brecheen, switched their votes to Kevin Hern of Oklahoma. Gaetz reiterated his vote for Trump. (Result: 212 for Jeffries, 201 for McCarthy, 17 for Donalds and 4 other votes.)
9th Ballot Highlights: Gaetz has abandoned his vote for Trump in favor of Kevin Hern. Ken Buck missed the vote, causing McCarthy to lose a supporting member. All others voted the same. (Result: 212 for Jeffries, 200 for McCarthy, 17 for Donalds and 4 other votes.)
10th Ballot Highlights: Several defectors have followed Gaetz and have shifted in favor of Kevin Hern for Speaker. Hern supported McCarthy and has done so on all previous ballots. No Republicans have defected from McCarthy since Spartz switched to voting present on the fourth ballot. (Result: 212 for Jeffries, 200 for McCarthy, 13 for Donalds, 7 for Hern and 1 present vote.)
11th Ballot Highlights: Bob Good has switched his vote from Donalds to Hern. Gaetz has switched his vote back to Trump. All other votes remain the same. (Result: 212 votes for Jeffries, 200 for McCarthy, 12 for Donalds, 7 for Hern, 1 for Trump and 1 present vote.)
12th Ballot Highlights: Significant movement amongst the holdouts: 14 have acquiesced and switched their votes to McCarthy (Spartz among them, switching from “present” to McCarthy). David Trone (D) was marked absent. The remainders were split between Kevin Hern and Jim Jordan. McCarthy overtakes Jefferies in votes for the first time. (Result: 213 votes for McCarthy, 211 for Jeffries, 4 for Jordan and 3 for Hern)
13th Ballot Highlights: Andy Harris flips from voting Jordan to voting McCarthy. Six holdouts remain and coalesce around Jordan for a second time. David Trone (D) returns to the House. (Result: 214 votes for McCarthy, 212 for Jeffries, 6 for Jordan)