Colorado: Keeping It Competitive
Lobbying proves that partisan influence may be unavoidable in redistricting.
Topline Takeaways
Colorado is one of six states to gain one House seat following the reapportionment process. The 2020 census pegged the state’s population at 5.7 million, a 14.8% increase since 2010.
Colorado’s newest congressional district, CO-8, is a rare competitive district. Voters included in the new district supported Donald Trump by 2 points in 2016 and Joe Biden by nearly 5 points in 2020.
The state’s independent redistricting commission prioritized competitiveness over communities of interest, a choice that’s angered several Hispanic voters and Democratic voters across the state.
Who’s In Control
Back in 2018, Colorado voters approved constitutional Amendment Y which ordered the state to establish a 12-member independent redistricting commission to draw new boundaries for the state’s congressional districts. The commission would be a non-politician commission, consisting of four members from the state’s largest political party, four members from the state’s second largest political party and four members with no political affiliation. Once the commission approves new congressional district boundaries, they must submit their new map to the Colorado Supreme Court for approval. The new map was approved by the court on November 1.
Despite the inherent goal of making the redistricting process non-partisan, a flurry of lobbying activity from both sides proved that partisan influence may be unavoidable in redistricting. A total of 21 registered lobbyists reported receiving a total of $157,000 in payments from groups wishing to be represented in front of the redistricting commissions.
New District Breakdown
The state’s first congressional district remains the “Denver” district: CO-1’s boundaries mirror the city limits, almost exactly as it did in the previous congressional map. CO-6 borders CO-1 to the south and exclusively holds the southeastern suburbs like Aurora and Centennial (The new sixth district handed over neighborhoods northwest of Denver International Airport to the new eighth district.)
Colorado’s 2nd congressional district shifted slightly to the west, still holding onto Fort Collins and Boulder but now including Eagle, Jackson and Routt counties in the state’s Western Slope. CO-3 gives up those counties in the northwest in exchange for rural Otero and Las Animas counties in the southeast. Colorado’s fourth congressional district remains incredibly rural, holding the entirety of Eastern Colorado. Colorado’s fifth district saw major changes as four of its five old counties were transferred to a radically different CO-7. As a result, CO-5 now only encompasses the Colorado Springs metro area which, despite being heavily urbanized, still supported Trump by nearly 11 points.
The most impactful changes to Colorado’s congressional district map are in a radically different CO-7 and a brand new eighth district.
Colorado’s revamped seventh congressional district charts a new path through the center of the state. After giving up much of Denver’s northern suburbs to the new eighth district, CO-7 begins in Broomfield, travels south through the western Denver suburbs in Jefferson county and continues to catch rural voters in Park, Chaffee, Fremont, Teller, Custer, and Lake counties. The inclusion of more rural voters in CO-7 produces a significant partisan shift, almost 10 points toward Republicans. While the district still leans toward Democrats, expect a hard-fought House campaign here in 2022.
Meanwhile, the state’s new eighth district stands out as a competitive district, a rarity in this redistricting cycle. It follows US-85, beginning at the Denver city limits and traveling north through suburban towns until it arrives at Greeley. The new district provides a unique profile as it is both the second most nonwhite district and the second least educated in the state (when measuring % of residents holding at least a Bachelor’s degree.) The new CO-8 is a Trump-Biden district: Trump won these neighborhoods by 2 points in 2016 and lost them to Biden by just under 5 points in 2020. Even in 2016, many voters here split their tickets as they supported Democratic Senator Michael Bennet alongside Trump. Expect this new district be in the spotlight throughout 2022.
Cracking, Packing, Kidnapping or Hijacking?
While Colorado’s new congressional district map was spearheaded by an independent redistricting commission, both Democrats and members of the state’s Hispanic community have voiced their displeasure with the new boundaries. Democrats are upset because the new map produces competitive districts that blunt their registration advantage. While Democrats have beaten Republicans by 10 points statewide in the last two US House election cycles, the same voting patterns transposed onto the new map would likely lead to an even 4-4 split in party representation.
Meanwhile, Hispanic voters in Colorado are upset that no single district provides adequate representation for the state’s relatively large Hispanic population. Several advocacy groups pushed for a new southern congressional district that would have brought together the large Hispanic communities in Pueblo, South Colorado Springs and the San Luis Valley. A district drawn in this fashion is likely to have produced a safe Republican seat, giving weight to the assertion that the redistricting commission prioritized drawing competitive districts over retaining communities of interest.
-Mark Gaber, director of redistricting at the Campaign Legal Center