2022 Senate Races Outlook

34 states will hold Senate races in the upcoming election cycle.

Open Seats

A total of seven Senate seats up for election this year will be “open seats.” This means that the current senator will be retiring at the end of this term, opening the seat up for a newcomer. A majority of these seats are representing states that voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2020 including Ohio, Oklahoma, Alabama and Missouri. Two open seats represent swing states that could go either way: Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Vermont is widely expected to go to Democrats as Rep. Peter Welch, the state’s eight-term House representative, is running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy.

Special Elections

California is holding two elections for one seat at the same time. One election for the remainder of the current term (Nov thru Jan) to fill the seat vacated by Vice President Kamala Harris (currently filled by appointee Alex Padilla) and a second election for the full length of the following term (starting Jan 3, 2023). Most candidates are running in both elections and analysts expect voters to choose the same person for both ballot questions.

Oklahoma is holding two elections for two different Senate seats at the same time. One election is a normal “Class 3” seat that was scheduled for this year. The other is to fill an open seat created by the recent retirement of Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe. Candidates here must only run in one election as they cannot hold two Senate seats at once.