Suburban Swing Districts in the 2022 Midterms
While Trump’s rise has definitively shifted many suburban voters left, the following districts are still squarely in swing territory.
Every political cycle, we obsesses over suburban voters. They’re often portrayed as America’s middle ground: considerably less conservative than rural voters but not as liberal as urban voters. The true political dynamics of our country’s suburbs are much less compelling. Of the nation’s 56 distinctly suburban House districts, Joe Biden won 49 of them in the 2020 presidential election and only 6 are currently represented by Republicans in the House. Trump’s rise has definitively shifted many suburbs left toward Democrats as these communities are becoming both more diverse and more educated.
The following eight districts are places where this shift is occurring in real time. These districts all had close margins in the 2020 election (decided by less than 10 points) and hold increasingly rare split-ticket voters. Get up to speed on these House races as they will likely stay in the political spotlight until Election Day in November.
*Incumbent candidates are denoted by an asterisk.
CO-8: Yadira Caraveo (D) v. Barb Kirkmeyer (R)
Colorado gained a House seat in this round of redistricting after its population grew by more than 14% over the last decade. CO-8 is the state’s brand new district and includes much of the suburbs north of Denver including Sherrelwood, Thornton and Frederick. (It can also be thought of as the “South Platte River district” as it follows the river from Denver city limits to Greeley.)
Many are expecting this new district to produce one of the most competitive House races this cycle due to its unique demographic profile. CO-8 is almost majority nonwhite (44%) due to its growing Hispanic population. The district also has a near-majority of unaffiliated voters who are uncommitted to either major political party. Had the district been established in the prior redistricting cycle it would have also been a Trump-Biden district: voters here supported Donald Trump by a slim 2-point margin in 2016 and flipped to giving Biden a 5-point edge in 2020.
The two major party candidates in this district cement this race as a “toss-up.” Both women are currently serving on the state legislature (Caraveo in the state House, Kirkmeyer in the state Senate) and neither have any experience running for federal office.
NY-11: Matchup TBD (Primary Aug 23)
Staten Island anchors New York’s 11th congressional district and has been primarily represented by Republicans in the House for the last 10 years. It briefly flipped toward Democrats during the “blue wave” election of 2018 but immediately flipped back to Republicans in 2020. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, the Republican responsible for returning the district to her party, is running for re-election and is expected to win her primary this week. She is likely to face off against former Rep. Max Rose as he is currently the frontrunner in the Democratic primary. Rose was the winning Democrat in 2018, therefore this race is shaping up to pit the current incumbent against the previous incumbent.
PA-1: Ashley Ehasz (D) v. Brian Fitzpatrick* (R)
Pennsylvania’s 1st congressional district is almost entirely made up of Bucks county, a suburban enclave between Philadelphia and Trenton, NJ. The county is incredibly white (86%) and has a history of swinging between the two major parties in local elections. While the district has tilted toward Democrats in recent years, voters here have been clear that their votes are more of a repudiation of Donald Trump rather than glowing support for the Democratic party.
Quotes from my previous analysis of Pennsylvania’s presidential election vote in 2020:
“It was more of a vote against President Trump than for Biden.” -Jeff Matthes, voter in Bucks County
Despite voting for Biden by a 4-point margin in 2020, this district is likely to stand behind incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick as he’s distanced himself from Trump since winning re-election in 2020. He was one of 35 House Republicans that voted in support of the January 6 commission. He’s also a former FBI agent and has called for patience and restraint after the recent FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago. (Although he hasn’t forcefully spoken out against his colleagues’ violent rhetoric either…) Voters here have shown a clear openness to split-ticket voting, we shouldn’t be surprised if they continue that trend into 2022.
MI-10: Carl Marlinga (D) v. John James (R)
Michigan’s 10th congressional district primarily holds the Macomb county suburbs of Detroit, including Warren, Roseville and Sterling Heights. It’s heavily white (75%) and voted for Trump by an incredibly slim 0.7 margin in the last presidential election. The county also has a long history of being a political bellwether due to its primarily white working-class population.
This district’s seat is currently open, further adding to its competitiveness. After two failed runs for US Senate, Republican John James is setting his sights a bit lower by running for a House seat for the first time. He’ll face off against Democrat Carl Malinga, a judge of the Michigan 16th Circuit Court.
AZ-1: Jevin Hodge (D) v. David Schweikert* (R)
Arizona’s new first congressional district holds the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix including Scottsdale and Paradise valley. This district is the most educated of the bunch, almost half of all voters here hold a bachelors degree or higher. This may create an opening to oust incumbent Rep. David Schweikert.
Schweikert has focused on courting the extremist voices in his state since his old district leaned toward Republicans. Just in the past two years, he’s defended insurrectionists, spread misinformation about COVID-19, and advocated for election falsehoods. Redistricting reshaped his district politically, taking what was once a 4-point Trump advantage and transforming it into a district that narrowly supported Joe Biden by a little more than a point. His new voters may not respond kindly to his hard-right turn, creating an opening for Democratic challenger Jevin Hodge.
NV-3: Susie Lee* (D) v. April Becker (R)
Disclaimer: I lived in this district for almost a year when first moving to Las Vegas!
This district is primarily made up of the developing western suburbs of Las Vegas including the wealthy enclave of Summerlin and the heavily Asian community of Spring Valley. As a result, the district is majority nonwhite and tilted toward Biden by 6 points in the last presidential election.
Democratic Rep. Susie Lee was first elected during the blue wave election of 2018 and held on by a slim 3-point margin against Republican challenger Daniel Rodimer, a former WWE wrestler. This year’s election may be even tougher for Lee as April Becker is an established presence in southern Nevada. (Rodimer quickly decamped to run for office in Texas after losing his election in Nevada.)
FL-27: Matchup TBD (Primary Aug 23)
Florida’s 27th congressional district is yet another district that briefly flipped blue during the “blue wave” year of 2018 and flipped back to Republicans in the following House election. The district is majority nonwhite and just barely voted for Trump in the 2020 election. The Republican incumbent, Rep. Maria Salazar is widely expected to win her upcoming primary and will likely face off in a close race against the eventual Democratic challenger.
MI-10: Carl Marlinga (D) v. John James (R)
Michigan’s 10th congressional district primarily holds the Macomb county suburbs of Detroit, including Warren, Roseville and Sterling Heights. It’s heavily white (75%) and voted for Trump by an incredibly slim 0.7 margin in the last presidential election. The county also has a long history of being a political bellwether due to its primarily white working-class population.
This district’s seat is currently open, further adding to its competitiveness. After two failed runs for US Senate, Republican John James is setting his sights a bit lower by running for a House seat for the first time. He’ll face off against Democrat Carl Malinga, a judge of the Michigan 16th Circuit Court.
FL-15: Matchup TBD (Primary Aug 23)
Florida’s 15th congressional district sits east of Tampa Bay and captures the eastern suburbs including Temple Terrace and Plant City. This district is another that’s almost majority nonwhite thanks to a large Hispanic population. The district has been represented by the GOP since it was initially drawn in 2013 but has only barely supported Trump in presidential elections. (He only won the new district by a slim 3-point margin over Biden.) The contenders for this race are still undecided.
I just found your blog while searching for data on the densiity of each of the newly drawn congressional districts. Great work. I would love to know how I might be of assistance...