Arkansas: NWA vs. the Delta
This "NWA" has very little attitude.
Topline Takeaways
Arkansas continues to lean more and more conservative, complicating things for a state Democratic party that is associated with the liberal national party and is increasingly unable to create its own distinct identity amongst local voters.
Donald Trump continued Republicans’ “red streak” in Arkansas, marking the seventh consecutive election where the Republican presidential candidate improved on the previous candidate’s margin.
Joe Biden performed best among the state’s African American population and struggled in the state’s more populous counties.
In-depth Insights
Arkansas can be seen as the template for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” appeal. The state is heavily conservative, has relatively low educational attainment, is Whiter than the nation as a whole and is seeing its population decline in the majority of its rural counties. Roughly 42% of the state’s land is used for agriculture, supporting over 250,000 jobs in the state. These farmers were favorable of trade deals made during Trump’s tenure as president and backed his reelection even more forcefully.
While most of its rural areas are shrinking, Arkansas’ metropolitan areas are booming. Many attribute the success to pro-business Republican policies that have kept taxes low. Fayetteville, Arkansas lands in the nation’s fastest growing metropolitan areas, due to the presence of Fortune 500 companies like Walmart and Tyson Foods. These businesses have instilled goodwill among residents as they have invested in the community via amenities like the Walton Arts Center, a performing arts venue funded by large donations from the Walton family of Walmart.
The Arkansas Democratic party has faltered over the past decade, losing every statewide election since 2015. Many believe this is due to both the state and national party becoming complacent following former governor Bill Clinton’s terms as president. Support was further eroded after Hillary Clinton lost the nomination to Barack Obama in 2008 as the state party did not forcefully reorganize around the eventual president following their favored candidate’s failure. Much like many other Southern states, the nationalization of the Democratic party in the 2010s proved to erode support even further. While national Democrats moved left, voters defected to Republicans in ever increasing numbers.
Even in the state’s cities, the type of environment where Joe Biden typically performs well, he had a tough time gaining a foothold. Joe Biden won only one of the state’s top ten most populous counties. Where Biden performed most strongly was among the state’s African American population which is primarily clustered in the Southern portions of the state and along the Mississippi River. Unfortunately, Black voters only makeup 15% of the state’s residents and are too small of a group to shift elections on their own. Even worse, turnout in these majority-Black areas is considerably lower than Whiter areas, due to a mix of current and historical methods of voter suppression.
Forecasting the Future: While Arkansas shares a lot in common politically with other neighboring Southern states, it stands out for its relentless shift toward Republicans. This election marks the seventh consecutive presidential election where Republicans increased their margins; no other state in the US beats the state’s progressively redder winning streak. This should be particularly alarming for Democrats as many of the state’s majority-Black counties shifted toward Trump between 2016 and 2020, exposing further “leaks” from which Democrats are losing votes. While Arkansas’ political divide is typically defined by race, recent trends are proving that Democrats can’t count on Black voters as an inevitable voting bloc. Many of these Black voters are incredibly religious and have more moderate views on issues like abortion and LGBT issues. As Democrats across the country move farther away from these voters ideologically, Black voters will begin to rethink their options, or at the very least, begin sitting out of elections where neither candidate reflects their political opinions. (Check out my previous post on South Carolina to learn more about Black conservatism.)
Leftover Links
Believe it or not, Arkansas’ Black women briefly supported the Republican party in the 1960s and 70s, largely due to the racism they experienced from Southern Democrats at the time. Hear the history of how these Black women sought political opportunities wherever they were welcomed.
The Arkansas government is expecting the population of Northwest Arkansas to double between now and 2045. See what planners are doing to prepare for this population boom.