Colorado: MeatOut vs. MeatIn
Red meat is truly a "red-meat" issue in Colorado
Topline Takeaways
Pres. Joe Biden continued Democratic success in Colorado largely thanks to his high margins in Denver’s metropolitan area, home to half of the state’s voters.
Donald Trump’s strength lied in the state’s Eastern Plains region, home to much of the state’s agricultural industry and livestock farming.
Colorado’s growing Hispanic population is proving to be an important group of swing voters as many of these voters in Denver support Biden as others in the San Luis Valley supported Donald Trump.
In-Depth Insights
Colorado has recently emerged as a reliably Democratic state after shifting from supporting Republicans for much of the late 20th century. Former governor John Hickenlooper’s recent Senate win cemented Democratic dominance: today all statewide executive offices, both houses of the legislature and a majority of its congressional delegation are in the hands of the Democratic party. Much of this is due to shifts in and around the state’s most populous city: Denver.
While Denver city and county has long voted for Democrats in presidential elections, President Obama in 2008 helped deliver the large suburban counties of Arapahoe, Broomefield and Jefferson to the Democratic party. Hillary Clinton held these counties in 2016 and Pres. Joe Biden built on her margins by nearly 10 points in all three counties. Much of this can be attributed to demographic changes within the state. Denver’s metropolitan area population has grown by roughly 13% due to an influx of young urban professionals from other states and an increasing Hispanic population. The area now holds slightly over half of the state’s overall residents, making it a key decider in statewide elections.
The slightly more fascinating geography of Joe Biden’s win lies within the more sparsely populated counties in the state’s Western Slope region. Much of Colorado’s nationally recognized ski resorts fall within this region. The area is also known for its energy extraction industry, often called the Colorado Mineral Belt, as the area’s land is rich in oil, uranium, natural gas and coal. These counties stand out as some of the nation’s few rural counties that are trending toward Democrats. For much of the 20th century, these counties voted for Republican presidential candidates (although at rates slightly lower than that of the counties in the eastern half of the state.) As counties surrounding Denver began to shift toward Democrats, these counties followed suit. One explanation behind the shift is that voters living in these counties have relatively high educational attainment. In many of these counties more than half of residents hold a college degree, with some having higher rates of educational attainment than that of the suburban counties surrounding Denver. This matches up with national trends as Democrats swallow up educated regions nationwide.
Donald Trump saw the most support within the state’s Eastern Plains region bordering Nebraska and Kansas. The region shares much more in common with these neighboring Republican states as the primary industry is agriculture and livestock farming. It’s almost entirely contained within Colorado’s 4th congressional district, reliably represented by Republicans in Congress since the district was redrawn in 2011. The district has remained remarkably consistent despite a changing national party. While every Republican candidate has won the district since 2000, their winning margin has not budged: regularly leaning about 15 points to the right.
Colorado Governor Jared Polis recently raised the ire of ranchers in the Eastern Plains with his declaration of a “MeatOut” day, encouraging Colorado residents to avoid meat products on March 20, 2021 to protect the environment and inspire better health outcomes by reducing meat consumption. Workers within the state’s meat industry were angered by what they perceived as a government attack on their jobs and livelihood. As a result, many of the state’s largest meat producing counties bucked the governor’s leadership and instead proclaimed March 20th as a “MeatIn” day, inspiring local barbecues and meat-focused specials in restaurants. The event effectively characterized the widening divide between Colorado’s liberal leaning urban voters and the more conservative rural ranchers. These rural areas are becoming increasingly turned off by the Democratic party’s continued lean towards the left and focus on urban areas. An emerging bloc of swing voters has the potential to challenge the typical urban vs. rural narrative but for now it looks as though they’re following established trends.
Forecasting the Future: The San Luis Valley is a large high-altitude basin lying in the south central portion of Colorado. It is comprised of six counties, five of which have an above-average proportion of Hispanic residents. Despite Joe Biden’s success with Hispanics in the state’s urban areas, Trump won four of the San Luis Valley’s six counties. While Democrats aren’t too worried about this specific area of the state going for Republicans (these counties collectively hold less than 1% of the state’s voters) they should be concerned with how this matches up with trends nationwide. Despite his history of racist remarks toward Mexican immigrants, Donald Trump still managed to inspire a majority of voters in this region to support Republicans.