Florida: Patriotism vs. Socialism
Fears of socialism drive Florida voters toward Republicans.
Topline Takeaways
Donald Trump posted the largest margin for a presidential election in Florida since 2004.
While Joe Biden performed about as well as Hillary Clinton did in Florida, he managed to flip three counties she failed to win in 2016.
Trump’s continued success in the state is largely driven by major gains made within Hispanic communities across the state.
In-Depth Insights
Joe Biden’s coalition in Florida was primarily urban as he won seven of the state’s ten most populous counties. Despite his loss, he was still able to expand the map by flipping three counties Clinton failed to win in 2016: Duval (home to Jacksonville), Pinellas (directly west of Tampa) and Seminole (north of Orlando.)
While COVID affected how campaigns were run across the country, the differences in approach were starkly apparent in Florida, a state that largely resisted pandemic-related restrictions and even encouraged large gatherings during the election cycle. Biden’s camp forcefully rejected any campaign activities that could be seen as a public health hazard, eschewing in-person events and door-to-door outreach until very late in the race. Meanwhile, Trump held raucous rallies and regularly convened community events targeted toward the state’s various Hispanic communities. This painted a picture that proved “that the Democrats took their foot off the accelerator” but it’s incredibly important to note that this also signified a much larger engagement problem for the party when compared to Republicans. Many characterize Donald Trump’s approach as a never ending campaign that “never stopped in its efforts” to court Hispanic voters, particularly Cubans living in and around Miami.
- Fernand Amandi, Democratic political strategist
Donald Trump’s second win in Florida relied on a mixture of both older and newly formed coalitions. First, he replicated his strong showing in the northern regions of the state, scoring over 80% in many of the counties in the state’s panhandle. He also stayed ahead of Biden in the more moderate, rural counties surrounding Orlando and Tampa. The difference that brought Trump the largest presidential margin in Florida since 2004 was his ability to court several different Hispanic communities that previously voted for Hillary Clinton by appealing to fears of socialism.
“We ran an innovative grassroots and advertising effort that directly engaged newer Cuban arrivals — who had been largely ignored by both parties — as well as young U.S.-born Cuban Americans in ways that were culturally relevant to them and different than how you’d engage my abuelos’ generation.” -Giancarlo Sopo, a Trump campaign staffer
Despite Trump’s tough-on-immigrants rhetoric, many of these Latin American arrivals resonate with his “America First” approach that mirrors their aspirational patriotism. Those who fled dictatorships and/or poverty came to America to evade what they viewed as failed socialist governments and now lean on American nationalism to espouse their preference for capitalism:
- Nelson Diaz, former chair of the Miami Dade Republican Party
Republican party leaders leaned in on the negative perception of socialism in ways that hearkened back to each individual community’s history with their home country. Democrats threw Republicans an easy slam-dunk with their proposals of packing the Supreme Court, as the practice was employed by several socialist governments in Latin America to retain power. Voters quickly saw the parallels:
-Helen Aguirre Ferré, former White House communications aide
Forecasting the Future: While Biden was able to produce small shifts in areas that are typically Republican strongholds, these changes are dwarfed by Republican inroads in Hispanic communities surrounding the state’s cities. Even more importantly, these communities of Latin Americans are the primary engine behind the state’s growth, therefore Republican’s successes will continue to pay dividends if they can retain the support they’ve garnered in the wake of the 2020 election.
A unique part of Republican outreach was how they approached each of these communities individually, rather than generalizing their outreach toward all Hispanics as a singular bloc. For example, Osceola County has the 2nd highest share of Hispanics in the state, thanks to its large Puerto Rican community. Even though Osceola County (the deep red splotch south of Orlando on the map above) saw major shifts toward Trump like those around Miami, Republicans here took a very different approach that matched the county’s electorate.
Puerto Ricans in Osceola county have higher rates of educational attainment and were much less likely to live in poverty than other Hispanic communities in the state. Trump’s campaign specifically leaned on these markers of middle-class identity and frequently nodded to evangelical Christianity as these voters have embraced evangelicalism at relatively high rates. The contrast between each party’s approach was noticeable to voters on the ground, “We saw these double standards, of how [Democrats] treated faith-based communities and how they treated small businesses.”
The lingering question is if Republicans’ handling of the pandemic will cause these voters to flip back toward Democrats. While Governor Ron DeSantis has decried mask mandates and vaccine passports, Hispanics are among the groups hit hardest by COVID, especially recent variants that have proven to be more transmissible and deadly. While only 25% of state residents identify as Hispanic or Latino of any race, in May 2021 they were found to make up nearly 40% of the state’s caseload. Meanwhile, shortages of food and medicine in Cuba have triggered widespread protests aimed toward Democrats as a majority of Cuban Americans disagreed with the Obama administration’s approach to normalizing relations with the Cuban government. All of these factors blend together to prove that while Republicans currently have the upper hand, the political environment in Florida is still incredibly fluid.
“It would be a mistake for both parties to believe that these numbers are permanent.”
Leftover Links
Hear Florida’s Hispanic voters speak about their continued anxiety surrounding the pandemic.
Learn why some of Florida’s Black voters are lining up behind Donald Trump and the Republican party
While the national infrastructure bill has been stuck in Congress, Florida’s new passenger rail service, Brightline, has proven that privately funded infrastructure can speed things along. (Bonus Link: Read how a feud between Disney and Universal has brought recent expansion proposals to a standstill.)