Is Idaho a red state?
"I'm moving to Idaho!" seems like the conservative version of "I'm moving to Canada!"
Topline Takeaways
Idaho has been a Republican stronghold for decades. Despite Joe Biden’s modest gains, Donald Trump still won Idaho by a whopping 30-point margin.
While the state has grown rapidly over the last 30 years, much of this growth is from conservative voters emigrating from more liberal states.
Could Idaho expand its borders? Several counties in Oregon, Washington and California have considered seceding from their home states to form a “Greater Idaho” that gives rural voters more of a voice.
In-Depth Insights
Idaho is currently one of the most conservative states in the nation, with only four states giving Donald Trump a higher percentage of their vote in the 2020 election. This is unsurprising to most who are familiar with Idaho as it has supported Republican presidential candidates in every cycle for decades. This hard-right lean can be traced to the state’s complex geography: largely impassable and too difficult to settle for much of our nation’s early history. When people finally began settling in the state they valued Idaho’s remoteness and relished both their physical and political distance from Washington DC, as it allowed residents a lot of room for self-determination. The state is also overwhelmingly White and has a substantial Mormon population (thanks to neighboring Utah) which increases the state’s compatibility with conservative stances on social issues.
This has created a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy in Idaho as the state’s conservative lean has attracted other conservatives from neighboring states. Idaho’s population has grown by at least 15% in every decade since 1990. While some residents fear that out-of-state liberals are moving to Idaho and upsetting the balance of power, public polling shows that the large majority of new Idaho residents identify as conservative. Moreover, many of these conservative voters explicitly cite Idaho’s right-leaning political environment as the reason for their relocation.
“As conservative Christians, it was becoming more and more difficult to stomach what was happening in California. Our tax dollars, they were funding these things that we didn’t vote for. Our voices were not being heard in California… When we came to Idaho, we didn’t come here to change Idaho. We came here because we love what Idaho is.”
- Christa Trinchera, an Idaho resident who moved to the state last June
While many conservative voters on the west coast have contemplated this type of politically-motivated move, some in neighboring counties in Oregon and Washington aim to bring Idaho to them.
Greater Idaho
The Greater Idaho Movement is an emerging political advocacy group with the goal of moving the border of Idaho west to include the majority of eastern Oregon, a handful of counties in southeastern Washington and even the northern reaches of California. This movement resonates with many voters in the aforementioned areas as they all feel that they lack political representation in their respective states. These counties have much more in common with rural Idaho to their east than the more urbanized areas on the West coast. Therefore, instead of engaging in the politically untenable process of establishing their own statehood, they’re embarking on an easier solution of joining a neighboring state that shares a similar economic and political outlook. The group has already seen some success in eastern Oregon: so far, seven counties have approved ballot initiatives related to the Greater Idaho Movement.
It’s incredibly important to note, these counties did not vote on secession. Their ballot measures only required county boards to discuss the matter several times per year. (Here’s a link to the text used in Wallowa county’s ballot measure that narrowly failed in the 2020 general election.) Some county commissioners have explicitly stated that they’re not entirely sure if voters know what they voted on…
-Kelly Simmelink, chair of the Jefferson County Board of Commissioners
The legislation passed is incapable of giving politicians the agency to directly act on secession; the state legislature must approve any requests for secession before the official process can begin. While the movement has no teeth as of now, it’s an intriguing display that raises the concerns of rural voters who are currently outnumbered and have little political power within their state’s current borders. It also has led Idaho to be labeled the “last safe place” for Republicans on the west coast.
Joe Biden’s base of support came from three counties: Blaine, Teton and Latah.
Blaine county is the state’s most reliable county for Democrats, voting blue in every single presidential election single since Bill Clinton’s first campaign in 1992. It’s most known for being home to Sun Valley, a ski resort destination that has attracted the rich and famous. It received notoriety thanks to Ernest Hemingway who bought a house in the area in the 1950s. (He was later buried there after his death in 1961.)
Teton county is another vacation destination for the wealthy, serving as an affluent suburb of Teton County, Wyoming, home to Jackson Hole. The county is one of only 12 counties in the nation that has routinely rejected incumbent candidates, voting for Obama in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
Latah county holds the college town of Moscow, home to the University of Idaho. The university is only a 13-minute drive across the Washington-Idaho border from Washington State University, an institution that similarly flips its home county blue. The two universities form a unique micropolitan area home to some of the only socially liberal voters in the surrounding rural areas.
Biden also produced historic Democratic success in Ada county, Idaho’s most populous county, home to Boise. Previously, Republican presidential candidates regularly won the county by a 20-point margin, sometimes more. Democrats have made significant inroads over the past two decades and Biden posted the best Democratic performance in the county in over 20 years, coming within 5 ppoints of beating Trump. (Unfortunately the county barely holds 30% of the state’s voters.) Even if Biden had won all of the county’s voters, that still doesn’t erode enough of Trump’s lead to steal the win statewide. If Democrats want to be successful in Idaho, they’re forced to nominate more conservative candidates that match the state’s electorate as even the state’s urban counties hold a clearly conservative voting base.
Forecasting the Future: Don’t expect much political movement in Idaho. Democrats already have difficulty nominating moderate candidates; it’s unlikely that they’ll field any candidates for statewide elections that are conservative enough for Idaho’s voting base. Don’t expect the Greater Idaho Movement to move borders anytime soon either. Many in government cite the incredibly intricate nature of transitioning such large swaths land from one state to another as the reason why the movement likely won’t be succeed. Instead, attention should be turned to the civil war happening within Idaho’s Republican party as far-right politicians connected to the militia movement have begun holding offices of power. The biggest red flag is the state’s current Lt. Gov Janice McGeachin who has connections to the militia movement and has openly supported recent right-wing protests over COVID lockdowns and election integrity. The future of Idaho lies in this tug-of-war between moderate Republicans and right-wing extremists.
Leftover Links
More from Battleground: Learn even more about the Greater Idaho movement.