Mississippi: Jeepers vs. the Delta

First in this series, last in just about everything else.

Justin Brown

Jul 05, 2021

Mississippi’s vote in the 2020 presidential election is depicted above.

Topline Takeaways

The legacy of slavery still shapes Mississippi’s electoral geography today. Biden’s county-level wins relied on African American support in the Mississippi Delta and along the historic “Black Belt” corridor; all areas where slavery was once prevalent and profitable. Trump won Mississippi by mobilizing White evangelicals across the state and performed best in areas where slavery was unprofitable and Blacks are outnumbered: the hilly north in the Tennessee Valley and the infertile soil along the Gulf Coast.
Political representation does not accurately reflect the state’s demographics. Even though roughly 38% of Mississippian’s identify as African American, the state has not elected a Black person to a statewide office in over 100 years.
Persistent disenfranchisement of Black voters leads to an incorrect estimation of the electoral power of the state’s Black community. Despite the fact that the state has the nation’s largest percentage of Black residents, both parties focus their resources on courting White voters for electoral success. As a result, turnout in Black communities is significantly lower than White areas.

In-depth Insights

Let’s start by looking at Donald Trump’s winning coalition…

Reminder for mobile users: You can always tap on any images to see a larger version that allows you to zoom in and see things more clearly.

Between the Gulf Coast and the Tennessee Valley, Donald Trump managed to win nine of the state’s ten most populous counties, a rare feat for a candidate that’s known primarily for his strength in rural areas. Cities in these regions differ from most other American cities in that they’re significantly Whiter and less educated compared to other cities across the country. (In some counties as many as 1 in 4 people did not complete high school.) These similarities allowed Trump’s message to resonate throughout the state, regardless of how densely populated the county may be.

The Gulf Coast serves the stereotypical image of “Trumpland” where you’ll see boat parades on the water and “Jeepers for Trump” on the roads. These coastal Mississippi counties have been emerging as a top destination for retirees; complete with casinos, regal estates, and no income taxes on retirement benefits. North Mississippi comprises a portion of the Tennessee River Valley and shares more in common with states to its north than the Gulf Coast in the south. Due to the area’s infertile soil and hilly terrain, agriculture (and thus, slavery) was unprofitable in the region and instead attracted Union sympathizers during the Civil War. The creation of the Tennessee Valley Authority helped create a manufacturing boom that helped spur growth throughout the 1950s and 60s. Today, Mississippi’s fastest growing county, Desoto (a suburb of Memphis) sits squarely within the Tennessee River Valley.

The thread that knits these areas together is an evangelically powered social conservatism that manifests itself in the legal system through laws such as alcohol prohibition. Following the passage of the 21st Amendment in 1933, signalling the end of federal alcohol prohibition, several states instituted their own prohibition laws. Today, the legacy of prohibition lives on in 36 of Mississippi’s counties, in which the sale of alcohol is restricted or outright banned. A total of 21 counties are completely “dry” and prohibit the sale of any alcohol whatsoever. The one thing that all “dry” counties have in common? Donald Trump came out ahead of Joe Biden in every single one.

This isn’t to say that Trump’s constituency is full of puritanical, teetotalers but moreso a reflection of the environment where Trumpism produces the most success. Communities where religious dogma drives social policy are the prime targets of the Republican culture wars. It isn’t of utmost importance that Trump isn’t fiercely religious, what matters is that he fights the perceived moral rot that evangelicals define themselves against. In their eyes, he supports their mission of evangelism without directly invoking God or the Bible. His vulgar comments can be overlooked if they’re weaponized in ways that advance their cause.

Joe Biden’s base of support follows what’s historically known as the Black Belt.

I’ll let Booker T. Washington take the mic to explain the origins of this term:

“I have often been asked to define the term ‘Black Belt.’ So far as I can learn, the term was first used to designate a part of the country which was distinguished by the color of the soil. The part of the country possessing this thick, dark, and naturally rich soil was, of course, the part of the South where the slaves were most profitable, and consequently they were taken there in the largest numbers. Later, and especially since the war [WWI], the term seems to be used wholly in a political sense – that is, to designate the counties where the black people outnumber the white.” – Booker T. Washington

The legacy of slavery still shows up on our maps to this day. The maps below show the current racial and economic geography of the state. There are 18 counties where Black people make up the majority and an additional five where non-White people outnumber White people. All except two of these counties are known as “persistently poor,” areas that have retained a rate of poverty of 20% or higher for the last 30 years. Race and poverty are inextricably linked in Mississippi due to its legacy of slavery, the persistence of racism and the failure to dismantle systems that perpetuate these inequalities.

Take a moment to swallow this pill: Mississippi has the nation’s largest concentration of Black people in the country (38% of MS residents identify as African American), yet it has failed to elect a Black person to any statewide office for over 100 years. An intricate web of policies is what keeps this ceiling from being broken:

Felon voting restrictions currently prevent an estimated 16% of the state’s Black population from voting permanently, even after serving their sentence. (The only way around this is via a legislative bill or a gubernatorial pardon: White prisoners are pardoned more often than Blacks prisoners even though twice as many Blacks are incarcerated in the Mississippi prison system.)
Voter ID laws require those without identification to take a day off work to get one (offices are only open 8-5, M-F). That’s a big deal when 30% of the state’s Black population lives in poverty (four times the rate of Whites in the state.)
Both of the state’s political parties have internal policies that lift up White politicians and suppress the voices of Black voters.

To be clear, legally blocking Blacks from voting isn’t the form of effective disenfranchisement. Simply attempting to make voting more difficult accomplishes the more insidious tactic of convincing the minority communities that their votes don’t matter. Kim Houston, president of the Meridian City Council, underlines how discouragement leads to disengagement:

“Sometimes I think we beat ourselves… There’s this mindset that (voting) doesn’t matter, that nothing is going to change, that the election system is rigged.”

And the problem goes beyond the Republican party. Mississippi’s Democratic party is primarily supported by Black voters, nearly 70% of the Democratic voting base identifies as African American, yet party leadership is overwhelmingly White. This is because the process used to elect party leaders relies on gerrymandered congressional districts. This dilutes the political power of Black voters since most are clustered within the state’s 2nd congressional district and instead gives a stronger voice within the party to the three other heavily White districts. (Mississippi Today does a fantastic job of this all breaking down.)

The key to unlocking Mississippi’s competitiveness lies in increasing turnout and maintaining enthusiasm in the African American community. Counties won by Biden had lower turnout on average compared to counties won by Trump, signalling that there’s still room for growth in Democratic strongholds. Moreover, Trump’s strength in the state’s cities has proven to be durable: between 2016 and 2020 Trump lost ground in all of the state’s top five most populous counties. (The state’s second largest county, Desoto, shifted towards Democrats by 6 points between the two elections.)

Forecasting the Future: Keep an eye on Republican efforts to “secure” elections in the state. If these measures result in lower turnout and continued voter suppression of the Black community, expect the state to remain under tight Republican control for the foreseeable future. If Democrats successfully adjust their message to more strongly appeal to rural voters AND beat back Republican efforts by increasing voter turnout, a statewide Democratic win might just be on the horizon. Hey, it happened in Alabama!

Battleground

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