New Mexico: "Burque" vs. "Little Texas"
Is the BBQ any good in ABQ?
Topline Takeaways
Donald Trump performed best in the southeastern region of the state that holds the Permian Oil Basin.
Pres. Joe Biden produced a win for Democrats by consolidating support around the state’s cities: Albuquerque and Santa Fe.
The recent energy boom in the Permian Oil Basin has caused quite a bit of political tension within the state as both conservatives and liberals have issues with state leaders’ recent energy decisions.
In-Depth Insights
The Republican voting base of New Mexico has historically found its strength in the sparsely populated southeastern corner of the state, often dubbed “Little Texas”. This area is home to the Permian Oil Basin, a large oilfield that has recently helped make the state a major oil producer. New Mexico currently stands as the third-largest oil producer in the US and produces more oil than OPEC members Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon combined. While the development has been a financial boon for New Mexico, it’s also created political opportunities for a Republican party that remains committed to the development of the energy sector. Trump’s friendliness toward fracking played incredibly well in this region of the state; the problem is that counties in these areas have small populations that aren’t enough to tilt statewide elections.
Pres. Joe Biden continued Democrats’ recent winning streak in New Mexico, building on Hillary Clinton’s margin by 2.5 points. The urban center of the state is known for its liberalism, partially due to its incredibly diverse electorate. Roughly half of all residents in Santa Fe and Bernalillo counties identify as Hispanic, mirroring the demographics of the state as a whole. This is even reflected in the state’s representation in Congress as New Mexico recently became the first state in the nation to elect a US House delegation that is all women of color.
The recent energy boom in the more Republican regions of the state have buoyed New Mexico’s typically cash-strapped budget, allowing the state’s liberal leaders to enact progressive policies. Although, the money flowing from the oilfields has proven to be a prickly political football for Democrats: conservatives oilfield workers are angry that the wealth they’re creating is being used to enact policies they oppose while environmentalists within the party are angry at Democrats’ friendliness toward practices that harm the environment for financial gain. One major sign of optimism for Democrats: the state’s third-party voting base still breaks in their favor when left with no adequate options, best seen when comparing the results of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Forecasting the Future: In 2016, former governor Gary Johnson ran as the presidential candidate for the Libertarian party and garnered nearly 10% of the statewide vote. (This stands as the Libertarian party’s best performance in any state since Ed Clark nabbed 12% of the vote in Alaska during the 1980 presidential election.) In 2020, overall support for third-party candidates dropped to just 2% as many of those previously independent voters opted for one of the candidates within the two major parties. The map above shows that the majority of these third-party voters resided in the urbanized center of the state. The map below shows that when forced to pick between Republicans or Democrats, third party voters tend to follow their neighbors: voters in the southeast broke heavily toward Republicans while those in more liberal areas favored Democrats. The math here works out in favor of Democrats, as they received a larger bump statewide from these voters than Republicans did.
Leftover Links
Here are six things to know about the people of New Mexico. (Originally addressed to Trump, but useful for everyone.)