New York: Upstate Urbanites vs. Trump Townies
While Joe Biden did not build on Hillary Clinton’s base in New York City, he performed much more strongly in Upstate New York.
Topline Takeaways
While Biden did not build on Hillary Clinton’s win margin, he performed much more strongly in Upstate New York, expanding Democrats’ base of support.
Donald Trump made significant inroads in New York City during his re-election campaign and produced significant shifts in all five of the cities boroughs.
While Biden only flipped four counties, he came incredibly close in nearly a dozen more: he lost by less than a 5-point margin in eleven counties across the state.
In-Depth Insights
Joe Biden won New York by stringing together wins in the state’s cities and along the Hudson River. While his statewide performance was only marginally better than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, he had a much wider geographic appeal, flipping four counties in the state’s “Upstate” region: Broome, Essex, Rensselaer and Saratoga. While he still dominated in the New York City metropolitan area, he didn’t perform as strongly as Clinton, who placed her campaign headquarters within the city. As the state has voted for Democratic candidates for in every election since 1984, Biden’s landslide win continued the pattern, proving that New York’s statewide elections are driven by a strong liberal lean.
"Trump supporters see government that is so disconnected from them... and they show up with a vengeance, that's a reality.” -Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro
Donald Trump performed most strongly among small towns and rural voters across the state. He specifically tapped into the state’s “anti-Albany” sentiment: voters who value small government and see high taxes and regulation as forms of government overreach. While many New York voters supported the harsh pandemic safety measures for public health reasons, many Upstate voters were angered by these measures’ harsh impact on their local economies, especially when COVID hadn’t reached their communities yet.
Forecasting the Future: Despite seeing little movement in the overall statewide vote, Biden produced significant shifts toward Democrats in the majority of the state’s counties. From the Canadian border in Western New York all the way to the eastern border with Vermont, Biden resonated with an increased amount of Upstate voters living in both rural areas and medium sized cities like Buffalo and Albany. This seemed to have its tradeoffs as the counties surrounding New York City trended in the opposite direction.
Trump only received about 20% of his overall vote from the New York City boroughs, one of which (Staten Island) he won outright. While most of NYC voters did not cast their ballots for Trump, he produced significant shifts in every borough. As this was New York’s first election with no-excuse absentee voting, much of these shifts may simply be a result of increased turnout from voters who typically don’t participate in elections. This is also a sign that Democrats may have hit an inevitable “ceiling” in their support in New York City as Clinton was able to garner more than 3 in 4 votes in every borough except for Staten Island in 2016. While this isn’t a sign that Republicans will begin winning local contests within the city, it proves the power of organizing for Democratic operatives as Clinton’s campaign called the city home.
Enjoyed reading this but there were some issues- Biden won Onondaga and Dutchess County by double digits. Additionally, Westchester and Suffolk counties swung way more blue than your map indicates (Trump went from winning Suffolk by double digits to a fraction of a percentage point)