Vermont: Progressives vs. The Mountain Rule
The state's historic east-west divide has been upended.
Topline Takeaways
Vermont ranks as the most Democratic state in the nation, voting for Joe Biden by a whopping 35-point margin.
Donald Trump still stands as the only Republican presidential candidate to win a county in Vermont since 2000.
Despite the state’s long history of supporting Republicans in the early 20th century, voters' commitment to liberal ideals has led to increased support for left-wing independent candidates and third parties.
In-Depth Insights
Vermont’s political history is a bit surprising amidst it’s current political patterns. While Donald Trump struggled to win a single county within the Green Mountain State, from 1856 to 1988, Vermont was one of the most reliable Republican strongholds in the nation. During the early 20th century, moderate and liberal Republicans were much more prominent in the national party and matched well with Vermont’s electorate. For much of this time with one-party rule of the state, Republicans instituted an informal “Mountain Rule” to nominate their candidates and keep the balance of power within the state geographically equal.
While the rule was never enshrined into law, it operated through “the force of tradition.” It was originally designed to balance the governorship but also bled into many other political offices. Vermont’s two senators consistently represented both the eastern and western halves of the state from the admission of the state to the Union all the way through WWII.
The mid-20th century saw seismic simultaneous shifts in Vermont’s political landscape. At roughly the same time The Mountain Rule was challenged as a corrupt mechanism that allowed Vermont’s political leaders to fix elections in their favor, “Rockefeller Republicans” in the national Republican party were replaced with conservative, Southern evangelicals. As a result of this culmination of factors, Vermont voters were increasingly turned off to the Republican party and began voting for Democrats. The last Republican presidential candidate to win the state was George H.W. Bush in 1988 and the 2000 election marked the last time more than 40% of the state’s voters supported a Republican presidential candidate.
Even after switching to Democrats, Vermont still holds the record as the state with the longest voting streak in presidential elections: Republicans won the state 27 times in a row between 1856 and 1960.
Today, Vermont ranks as the most Democratic state in the nation. It posted the widest margin for Joe Biden, voting for him by a whopping 35-point margin. The state’s governor, Phil Scott stands as the only Republican to win in a statewide election within the last decade. This is largely due to its staunchly liberal lean. It embraced same sex marriage in the early 2000s and was among the first states to legalize marijuana in 2013. The state has been recognized for having the greenest economy in the country for numerous years. Vermont is also regularly listed as one of the least religious states, further divorcing it from today’s Republican party.
Forecasting the Future: Bernie Sanders’ progressive revolution resonates deeply within the state. Despite losing the Democratic primary in 2016, he still received 5% of Vermont’s presidential vote from write-in ballots. On state-level issues, many voters support parties outside of the traditional two-party system. 12 of Vermont’s 150 members of the state House and 2 of Vermont’s 30 state senators do not align with either Democrats or Republicans. As most of these third-party politicians align with Vermont’s Progressive Party, politics within the state aren’t explicitly defined by a right vs. left divide but instead are measured by how far left a candidate may be. The current Republican governor, Phil Scott, is an anomaly: scoring higher approval ratings with Vermont Democrats than within his own state party. Unless future Republican candidates are as politically malleable as Scott, expect liberal Democrats and independents to continue to find success in Vermont.