Is Virginia a swing state?
UPDATE: This post was written prior to the 2021 gubernatorial election. Check out my posts on that election for up-to-date analysis on Virginia!
Topline Takeaways
Pres. Joe Biden’s win in Virginia leans heavily on the commonwealth’s cities that have much higher rates of educational attainment.
Donald Trump’s base lies primarily in the hilly portion of the commonwealth along the border with West Virginia.
The distribution of the vote matches the commonwealth’s racial demographics: Trump won nearly every county where White voters make up 85% or more of the population whereas Biden won every county where Whites are outnumbered by racial minorities.
UPDATE: Check out results from the 2021 gubernatorial election.
In-Depth Insights
Roughly 72% of Virginia voters live in either Northern Virginia, Greater Richmond or Hampton Roads; the three regions where Pres. Joe Biden came out ahead of Donald Trump. All of these areas have very diverse populations with which Donald Trump’s race-related gaffes were incredibly unpopular. When looking at the commonwealth’s southern counties specifically, many of these counties have large Black populations that form the northernmost reaches of the Black Belt. Just like those in the Deep South, many Black voters in these areas trace their ancestry to slaves serving on plantations, primarily working with the commonwealth’s main export in the 18th century: tobacco.
These areas are also among the most educated regions in the United States. Thomas Jefferson High School, often ranked the #1 high school in America, lies in the heart of Northern Virginia and is one of 18 “Governor’s Schools” that serve talented and gifted students across the commonwealth. The commonwealth as a whole ranks sixth in the nation for the percentage of residents holding advanced degrees.
Most importantly, the voting base in these areas is growing much faster than in other parts of the commonwealth. Six counties and independent cities in Northern Virginia ranked in the Top 10 fastest growing localities in the commonwealth (the other four were in Greater Richmond.) Pulling it all together, the winds of change in the commonwealth are blowing in favor of Democrats and squarely in the face of Republicans.
Donald Trump’s map of support mirrors the map of the commonwealth’s White population. Counties in the regions of Southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley where Trump did his best have large White populations, many over 90%. Meanwhile, most of the counties he lost have substantial (if not majority) minority populations.
An important roadblock for Republicans is that turnout in these regions is already higher than bluer areas in the commonwealth. A key method of success for Trump in redder states has been driving turnout in Republican counties that were previously disengaged and routinely sat out of elections. The problem here is that Republicans have already picked the lowest hanging fruit, while Democrats’ trees are still bountiful with ripe votes yet to be harvested. While the untapped votes in the commonwealth’s bluer, urban areas aren’t all “would-be Democrats”, it underlines a key organizational problem for a local Republican party that typically organizes a ground game better suited for rural areas where voters have vastly different political priorities. The western regions of the commonwealth are significantly more rural and less educated than the cities to the east. This has caused continued trouble for Republicans as they tend to embrace talking points and campaign strategies that fail to resonate with a majority of voters.
Forecasting the Future: While the commonwealth was regularly considered a toss-up throughout the late 20th century, Virginia has held a distinctly blue hue for the past decade. Only 3 Republican candidates for statewide office have won their races since 2011 and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly held Democratic majorities following the 2019 election. Recent trends show that voters are continuing to shift away from Republicans, more than 30 counties and independent cities showed shifts of at least 2% toward Democrats between 2016 and 2020, with seven seeing substantial shifts of 5 points or more.
Despite Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity in the commonwealth, Republicans continue to appeal to voters by following Trump’s playbook while simultaneously downplaying their ties to the former president. Many Republicans believe the key to turning their fortunes is by focusing on critical race theory (CRT): a progressive approach to racial justice that’s been heavily discussed and debated in academia.
When asked about critical race theory, most Americans are unfamiliar with the idea, giving Republicans the opening to define it as an idea detrimental to society. Once introduced to the topic, a slim majority of Virginia voters have voiced their opposition to teaching the concept in public schools. These tidbits have left Virginia Republicans salivating and candidates have tripped over themselves in recent months to make this a central topic in their campaigns, both within the commonwealth and nationally.
UPDATE: See what I learned from Glenn Youngkin’s win in Virginia’s recent gubernatorial election.