Washington: New Democrats v. Revolutionary Republicans
The Evergreen State? Eh, it's ever-changing.
Learn the history behind Washington State’s longstanding east-west divide.
Topline Takeaways
Washington state sees a stark east-west divide in its voting patterns due to the differing climates created by the Cascade Range.
The national Republican party’s shift to the right led to significant losses statewide as the state’s voting base is more liberal than conservative.
Many of Washington state’s Democrats identify as moderates; the emerging progressive wing of the national party may be less popular in the state than many believe.
In-Depth Insights
Washington state is split down its center by the Cascade Range which gives the state two distinct climates. The western half of the state has the rainy, oceanic climate that the Pacific Northwest is known for. The eastern half of the state falls in the Cascade’s rain shadow, producing a dry, semi-arid climate. This geological divide also shapes the state’s politics as the two halves hold significantly different economies: the west is home to the bulk of the state’s international commerce, aerospace and technology industries whereas Eastern Washington relies more on agriculture and resource extraction. While the divide is somewhat even with respect to land area, the western half of the state holds roughly 80% of the state’s voters, forcing candidates in statewide elections to prioritize the urbanized, liberal counties along the Puget Sound over the conservative plains in the east.
Donald Trump was most successful in the rural areas of eastern Washington that have supported Republicans for decades. In every presidential election since 2000, the Republican presidential candidate has won every county east of the Cascade Range (except Whitman county, home to Washington State University.) Republican dominance in this region can be traced back to shifts occurring in the early 1990s.
Prior to the 1994 congressional elections, Washington state was represented almost entirely by Democrats who held 8 of the state’s 9 US House seats. The 1994 midterm elections were characterized by Republicans’ nationalized strategy, later dubbed the “Republican Revolution,” which painted Bill Clinton as a “tax and spend liberal” that needed to be reigned in by a conservative majority in Congress. This pitch convinced many in the state to support Republicans as a whopping 6 seats flipped, giving Republicans the majority 7-to-2 . This revolution marked the Republican party’s continued shift to the right, better aligning with voters in Eastern Washington. As a result, the state’s 4th and 5th congressional districts (which make up the majority of Eastern Washington, prior to 2021 redistricting) flipped to Republicans in 1994 and haven’t flipped back since.
However, this shift spelled doom for the party as Republicans moved farther away ideologically from voters surrounding the Puget Sound, leading to major statewide losses for Republicans shortly thereafter.
-Chris Vance, former chair of the Washington State Republican Party
Following the Republican Revolution of 1994, four of the state’s congressional districts flipped back to Democrats in the following three elections, eventually giving Democrats an edge once again, 6-to-3. This shift was less about the change in voter sentiment and more about changes in the national parties. By the year 2000, the national Republican Party sat squarely at odds with the large, liberal voting base in Washington state. Since then, Democrats have only continued to build on their successes in every presidential election. Joe Biden garnered the highest vote total in the state’s history and produced the largest winning margin for a presidential candidate for any party since 1964. He topped Hillary Clinton by at least 2 points in over 20 counties across the state and flipped Clallam county after voting for Trump in 2016.
Republicans’ continued focus on appealing to conservatives gives Democrats a wide opening among liberals and moderates. Back in the mid-90s, Bill Clinton capitalized on this opening and paved the “Third Way” for liberals in the US by governing via a mix of social liberalism and economic conservatism. This newly available lane for centrist Democrats (also called “New Democrats”) played extremely well in Washington state, leading to the rise of many prominent Democratic lawmakers including Sen. Patty Murray and Rep. Adam Smith. Today, 6 of Washington’s 10 House representatives are a part of the New Democrat Coalition. This heavy presence exposes the state’s slight hesitancy toward emerging left-wing of the Democratic party. Pramila Jayapal, who represents deep-blue Seattle, chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus but is one of only of two Washington representatives that is part of the CPC. (The other is Rep. Adam Smith, who double dips as a member of both the NDC and the CPC.)
Forecasting the Future: Leaning too far to the left could lead Democrats to make the same mistakes made by Republicans in the ‘90s and organizers on the right have taken notice. An emerging group that could give Democrats trouble is the Mainstream Republicans of Washington. The MRW is a political action committee originally formed in 1990 that advocates for a more moderate approach than the national GOP to social issues like marriage equality, racial justice and immigration in exchange for a heavier focus on enacting economic conservatism. This approach matches well with the state’s current “pro-growth” mindset and also addresses Washington' voters distaste for social conservatism.