Virginia's 2021 Gubernatorial Election
Five things to consider as the voters head to the polls.
Today, Virginia voters head to the polls to cast their vote for their next governor and have three options on the ballot: former governor Terry McAuliffe (D), challenger Glenn Youngkin (R), or third-party candidate Princess Blanding.
Here are five things to consider as Virginians cast their ballots throughout the day:
1. Democrats will likely lose votes in the suburbs, but how many?
Democrats are expected to lose ground in the suburbs, primarily due to the absence of Donald Trump on the ballot. The former president was incredibly toxic for Virginia Republicans down the ballot as both houses of state government flipped to Democratic control in 2019, primarily due to shifting suburban seats in both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Youngkin is a more suburban-friendly candidate than Trump, with less rough edges and a laser-focus on family issues like education and public safety. Many believe that this approach will stanch the bleeding for Republicans among suburban voters in important places like Loudoun and Chesterfield counties. For Youngkin to come out with a win he doesn’t need to produce full-on flips in these areas, he simply needs to erode the high margins that Democrats have grown accustomed to. (That’s assuming that Youngkin pulls big numbers in the redder parts of the state...)
2. Can Youngkin turnout the Trumpkins?
In states he won, Donald Trump’s narrow path to victory was through running up historic numbers in rural, redder counties to offset more his lack of support in populous, liberal cities. While Youngkin has proven that he is more palatable among urban moderates than Trump, he hasn’t yet proven his ability to bank votes and stoke turnout in the more far-flung conservative areas. He has Trump’s endorsement but has opted to campaign without the former president by his side. While it’s a forgone conclusion that Youngkin will win most of the counties in the heavily Republican Southside and Southwest regions of the state, it’s an open question as to just how many Trump voters will show up to the polls today. With Trump’s Big Lie leading Republicans to avoid absentee ballots in favor of election day voting, it’s no surprise that the state’s 9th congressional district (holding the state’s sharp southwestern tip) has recorded the lowest amount of early voting in the state. But after recording election day totals, the more Republican areas of the state like the Southwest region tend to make up a larger percentage of votes in gubernatorial elections due to lower overall turnout. Youngkin has to hold onto Trump’s high turnout in these areas to have a shot at winning the state. If voters in these areas don’t show up on Election Day, Youngkin has almost no chance of winning as it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip the suburbs necessary to win without Trump’s base.
3. Black turnout in Southern Virginia will be a major bellwether.
Nearly 20% of Virginia residents are African Americans and many of them are clustered in majority-minority counties in the Greater Richmond and Hampton Roads regions of the state. Recent Democratic success in Virginia is in part due to Black voters in these areas turning out in force over the past decade. Terry McAuliffe’s chances of winning rest heavily on turning out this constituency and he understands that. In the final weeks leading up to Election Day he’s campaigned with a long list of Black Democratic icons including Stacey Abrams, Keisha Lance Bottoms and Barack Obama. The reason why this constituency is so important is because of off-year election trends: voters in Greater Richmond and Hampton Roads only made up roughly a third of all votes in 2020 but were responsible for over 40% of the vote in both previous gubernatorial elections. If these voters continue their streak of reliability and show up to the polls for McAuliffe, he should have little to worry about once the results start to trickle in.
4. If things are as close as expected, Princess Blanding could play spoiler.
It often goes overlooked that Virginians have a history of supporting third-party candidates in statewide elections. The most prominent example was in 2013: the Libertarian candidate scored 6% of the vote, leading McAuliffe to win with only 47% of the vote. In the 2016 presidential election, roughly 5% of the vote went to the collection of third party candidates. Polling has cast this election as a nail-biter with the candidates in a statistical tie heading into Election Day. If the vote mirrors what polls are predicting, any votes for third-party challenger Princess Blanding will likely eat into McAuliffe’s base. (For those who haven’t heard of Blanding, she’s a Black LGBTQIA+ mother running on a campaign to overhaul the state’s criminal justice system and is polling in the single digits.)
5. Virginians remember January 6.
Yes, Joe Biden’s approval ratings are underwater. Yes, Virginia typically chooses governors that are opposite the party in power in Washington. Yes, Youngkin has a better shot at winning the state running as a moderate rather than as a full-on Trump supporter. But Republicans mounted a televised insurrection barely a mile outside of the state’s borders less than a year ago. The party then denied the danger that many Virginia residents who work on the Hill experienced firsthand. It’s de-facto leader has continued to spread lies about the election, openly foment anti-democratic opinions among its constituency and is still the most popular candidate for nomination. This is not a normal election for Virginia.
Even if you’re a Virginian unhappy with Joe Biden and congressional Democrats in Washington, the chasm between the parties is yawning. While a select few may exist, I just don’t think there are many “Biden-Youngkin” voters out there. Even though Democratic voters are most certainly not as enthusiastic as their Republican counterparts, the stakes of this election are higher than previous cycles. While the caseload has fallen significantly over the past few weeks, the pandemic has not ended and Youngkin’s opposition to mandates that are popular with the Virginians won’t be easily dismissed by many. Youngkin has a huge mountain to climb as every statewide election since 2016 has gone to Democrats by 10 points or more. To recap: Virginia typically chooses governors that are opposite the party in power in Washington and Youngkin, the “should-be” favorite, is locked in a statistical tie. That in itself should tell you that this election isn’t following historical trends. The biggest indicator I’ve seen that Virginia is on a new path: nearly 80% of Virginia voters surveyed in a recent poll said that they were watching this race “somewhat” or “very closely.” The last time voters were this engaged in any election was at this same time in 2013, days before McAuliffe beat the odds and defied history. Virginia’s voters know what’s at stake and that the country is watching.
