The 2021 California Recall (Part 2): Polling and Candidates
Will Newsom be recalled? If so, who will replace him?
Will Gavin Newsom be recalled?
As of September 12, two days before Election Day, the two-week polling average sits at 41% in support of the recall and 56% against recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom. After numerous polling failures in the past two general election cycles, most are incredibly wary of using polling to forecast the outcome of elections. Even with this background, current polling gives little reason to believe that a majority of voters will support the recall.
Much of the recent political polling failures have surrounded an inability to accurately measure the sentiments of Republican voters. The most high profile example of this has been found in the Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.
It’s incredibly important to note that while the poll averages were off when estimating support for Republicans (or more specifically, support for Trump), polls were still remarkably accurate in predicting support for Democrats. While following the margins of these polls may lead election watchers in the wrong direction, keeping a close eye on Democrats’ ability hold a majority is still incredibly indicative of their success (or failure.)
Taking this approach to polling on the first recall question shows how unlikely it is that Newsom will be unseated. Not a single poll since early August has showed less than 50% of voters in opposition to the recall. While the polls may be underestimating the percentage of voters in support of the recall (currently hanging around the low 40s) there’s no evidence to support a belief that pollsters are overestimating Democratic support. Once you bake in Democrats’ overwhelming advantage among registered voters in the state (registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 2-to-1), it takes some blind enthusiasm to believe that Republicans are destined to unseat the governor, especially in an election where every single voter is mailed a ballot.
(Check out my earlier piece on Ohio to learn more about ‘redshift’ in polling.)
If Newsom is recalled, who will replace him?
Republican Frontrunners
Larry Elder is by far the clearest frontrunner in the recall and is the most likely candidate to replace Gavin Newsom if voters ultimately support the recall. Elder is the host of the nationally syndicated talk show ‘The Larry Elder Show’ and was born and raised in South Central Los Angeles. His unique identity as a Black conservative has lifted his profile and he’s been credited for inspiring a Bernie Sanders-style movement among Californian conservatives. What’s most curious is that despite national Republicans’ interest in the recall, many conservatives have soured on Elder’s candidacy, blaming him for Newsom’s late-race polling surge. The Republican National Committee even declined to endorse Elder, citing that “the polls are showing that the recall is in a statistical tie and we cannot afford to discourage voters who are passionate about a particular candidate.” (This was in fact a lie. When this claim was made in early August, Elder was already polling well ahead of the rest of the Republican field.)
Kevin Faulconer served as the mayor of San Diego from 2014 to 2020 and held a seat on the city council for 12 years. When the recall first gained traction, he was seen as an early frontrunner as he had already announced his intent to run in California’s 2022 gubernatorial election. One major hurdle for him in the deep-blue state is how he gave up his status as a “Never Trumper” during the former president’s reelection campaign in 2020:
John Cox is “always a bridesmaid, never the bride.” He has run for political office numerous times in many different states and has never won an election beyond the primary stage. His past campaigns include running for an Illinois congressional seat in 2000, one of Illinois two Senate seats in 2002, President of the United States in 2008 and even facing off against Gavin Newsom for California’s governorship in 2018. At the start of the recall, many were prepared for a heated Newsom v. Cox rematch as he scored only 8 points behind Newsom in the 2018 blanket primary (a crowded ballot including all candidates that more closely resembles the recall ballot.) Once again, it seems as though John Cox will hold onto his title as a perennial candidate as he’s currently polling behind both Elder and Faulconer.
Other Headline Grabbers
Kevin Paffrath is a Youtuber. He has over 1.7 million subscribers and posts multiple times a day on his channel. The vast majority of his Youtube content targets the fintech audience (cryptocurrency, meme stocks, Elon Musk) and has been recently inter-spliced with campaign videos highlighting his views on prominent political topics. He currently stands out as the most prominent Democratic candidate campaigning to unseat Newsom. He’s running a campaign akin to Andrew Yang: positioning himself as a political outsider with progressive proposals that lead to media attention. Regardless of the eventual outcome, Kevin is one of the big winners in the recall election: his Youtube channel regularly earns him six-figure payouts and he has gained over 100,000 subscribers since announcing his campaign.
Caitlyn Jenner had a high profile entry into the race in late April, echoing much of Donald Trump’s rhetoric. She vowed to “[take] on on entrenched Sacramento politicians,” and stand up for small businesses and schoolchildren that have been impacted by the state’s pandemic restrictions. She regularly made headlines for espousing views on wedge issues like transgender girls in sports, California’s struggles with homelessness, and the southern border wall. Then she did the unthinkable and completely disappeared from the campaign trail, flying to Australia to participate in “Big Brother VIP.” (A curious decision as the show will not air until after the recall election is finished.) While many expected her Kardashian pedigree would catapult the candidate to the front of the pack, her candidacy wasn’t taken seriously by the voters as her polling numbers never lifted into the double digits.