Is Virginia a blue state? Not quite yet...
Is Virginia a blue state? Not quite yet...
The Old Dominion state is more of a shade of indigo than a tried-and-true blue state.
Virginia has undoubtedly shifted toward Democrats over the past decade, but can it be called a blue state? Not quite yet. While the state has voted blue in every presidential election since Barack Obama’s first candidacy in 2008, there have been many Republican success stories in state politics throughout the last few years with 2021 standing out as a highlight for the party. The off-year election in 2021 not only brought Republicans back into the chairs of state’s three highest executive offices (governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general) the party also won a narrow majority in the State House.
Due to the state’s election cadence, the state’s 2022 midterms were almost entirely focused on U.S. House races. Below I dive into two of the state’s most consequential House races that help display the struggles Democrats continue to have in a state they’re desperately trying to claim as their own…
VA-2: Jen Kiggans (R) v. Elaine Luria (D)
Voters surrounding Virginia Beach have a long history of swinging between both parties. The last time a single party held this House seat for several consecutive elections was in the 1990s and since 2013 no Virginia political candidate for any office has won more than 55% of the vote here. What’s most surprising about this race is that the eventual winner, Republican Jen Kiggans, trafficked in many culture war issues that have alienated moderate voters in other states. She was on the frontlines of Gov. Youngkin’s war against Critical Race Theory in schools (just a reminder: critical race theory is already not a part of Virginia’s curriculum.) She also jumped into the fight against transgender students participating in schools sports.
To be fair to Kiggans, these political ideals reflect a relatively new ideological lean towards MAGA-fueled ideals. During her time in the state senate, she supported nondiscrimination protections for LGBT people as well as increased environmental protections. Doing so required her to buck her party and vote with Democrats on several occasions. As a result, some have gone on to call Kiggans a moderate with a MAGA edge, similar to current Governor Glenn Youngkin.
VA-7: Abigail Spanberger (D) v. Yesli Vega (R)
Virginia’s 7th congressional district displays the power of national party support. Most expected VA-7 to be a competitive swing district as the Democratic incumbent Abigail Spanberger only won her last election in 2020 by a slim 2-point margin. With this in mind, national campaign arms of both parties invested heavily in their respective candidates. Over $33 million was spent on this race, making it one of the most expensive races in the 2022 midterm cycle. The spotlight ultimately helped keep the district from flipping to Republicans. On average, House districts across the state voted 8-points more Republican when compared to the districts’ Biden-Trump vote in 2020. If VA-7 saw this shift, Vega would have emerged victorious. Instead, VA-7 saw the smallest shift in the state when compared to the presidential vote, allowing Spanberger to hold on to her seat.
While it was expected that Virginia’s House races would be a bit closer than previous year’s due to the new court-drawn House districts, the results were even more Republican-leaning than initially expected. The “2020 Pres Vote” column in the table above shows how each new district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election under their new boundaries. On average, each district shifted a whopping eight-points toward Republicans between 2020 and 2022, signalling continued enthusiasm for the party.
This statewide shift proves that it’s still premature to call Virginia a blue-state. Instead, it’s more accurate to call Virginia a “Trump-averse” state. When Trump is on the ballot, Virginians flock to the Democratic party and paint the state blue. When Trump is absent, Virginians have a much larger appetite for their local Republican leaders and are willing to flirt with MAGA-fueled policies. With that in mind, Virginia Republicans should probably dust off their “Never Trump” hats, for their own sake.