New Jersey's 2021 Gubernatorial Election
Even Gov. Murphy himself shared that he's been running a "paranoid" campaign.
Hey Everyone!
This week I’m taking a bit of a pause on my Statehood Series to cover this week’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. I’ll be covering Jersey today, Virginia tomorrow and will finish off with a review of the results on Thursday.
This year’s gubernatorial election in New Jersey sees incumbent Governor Phil Murphy face off against former Republican state House representative Jack Ciattarelli. Following several double digit statewide wins for New Jersey Democrats, the race is widely seen as an uphill battle for Ciattarelli with a win expected for Murphy.
Phil Murphy’s tenure as governor has been popular with New Jersey residents. He maintained favorable approval ratings throughout his time in the governors’ mansion and managed to score even higher support for his handling of the pandemic. During his term he managed to raise the minimum wage, expand paid family leave benefits and increased funding for public schools; all goals that national Democrats have struggled to accomplish on the national level. Despite entering the race with a list of legislative accomplishments and a clear base of support, Murphy has admitted that he’s “running like [he’s] 10 points behind.” With the national spotlight on the race, Murphy and his supporters understand that the results will have far-reaching consequences on both party’s campaign strategies heading in to 2022 and beyond.
-Matthew Hale, a political science professor at Seton Hall University
With Murphy as his incumbent challenger, Jack Ciattarelli’s prospects for victory are incredibly slim. Only two Republican candidates have won statewide elections in New Jersey since 2001: former Governor Chris Christie and his Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno (both elected in 2009 and re-elected in 2013). Since Chris Christie’s departure New Jersey Republicans have had an immensely difficult decade. They’ve consistently lost seats in both houses of the state legislature and Democrats currently hold a veto-proof super-majority in the General Assembly and the State Senate.
Ciattarelli, a self-described moderate Republican, has been forced to walk a tightrope throughout his campaign since New Jersey isn’t exactly Trumpland. He attended a local Stop the Steal rally last November just after the 2020 election and has since distanced himself from the movement and has stated that Joe Biden’s 2020 win is legitimate. While vaccinated himself, he has been vocal about his opposition to vaccine and mask mandates. He’s even been outspoken about parental concerns over school curricula (mirroring the panic seen in Virginia over CRT) but has remained vague about exactly what topics he thinks should be censored, motioning that “certain subject matter… is best left for the kitchen table.”
Despite the fact that Ciattarelli has been able to use his personal wealth to keep pace with Murphy’s fundraising hauls (Ciattarelli has spent $12.4 million on his campaign, Murphy $12.6 million), today’s New Jersey electorate just doesn’t match up with his campaign. This is a state where voters rejected Donald Trump by 15 points, where vaccine mandates are indisputably popular and where just barely half of all voters are White. Even Ciattarelli’s moderacy is likely to be too conservative for much of New Jersey voters. While the Republican challenger could produce an upset on Tuesday, it’s likely that Murphy’s “paranoid” approach to the campaign will keep New Jersey blue. The question circling my mind: will that blue be a deep shade of cobalt or a more purple-y shade of indigo?