West Virginia: Republicans Play Musical Chairs
Two House incumbents must face off after West Virginia loses a House seat.
Topline Takeaways
West Virginia is one of seven states in the country that lost 1 House seat following the 2020 census.
With the loss of a House seat, two Republican House incumbents will face off in a heated primary in the redrawn 2nd district.
Donald Trump has already endorsed Rep. Alex Mooney (old WV-2) as his challenger Rep. David McKinley (old WV-1) has a history of voting independently in lieu of sticking with the party.
New District Breakdown
The 2020 census found that West Virginia had the highest percentage population loss in the nation at 3%. (There were only three states that saw population declines nationwide, the other two being Mississippi and Illinois.) As a result, the state lost one House seat in the reapportionment process.
The state’s new map opts for a north-south split with a southern first district holding the state’s two largest towns: Charleston and Huntington; and a northern second district holding the state’s two panhandles and the state’s major public university (WVU) in Morgantown. The reduction from three to two districts doesn’t change the districts’ demographics all that much as the state is pretty uniformly white and not highly educated.
Demographic Destiny Diminishes Dominance
The state’s declining population is diminishing its impact on the national stage. While Sen. Joe Manchin will continue to aggravate Democrats until his term ends in 2025, House Republicans are guaranteed to lose an incumbent as West Virginia sees its number of districts drop from three to two. Even worse for Republicans, both incumbents have signaled their intent to run for re-election, kicking off a bitter primary battle that could leave an opening for a lesser-known challenger.
Rep. Adam McKinley is a six-term House representative that calls Wheeling, WV home. He chaired the West Virginia Republican party in the early 1990s. He holds the advantage “on-the-ground” as the entirety of his previous district (old WV-1) is held in the new WV-2. Rep. Alex Mooney was first elected in 2014 and is a four-term House representative. After serving on the Maryland State Senate for 12 years (and a stint serving as the Maryland Republican Party Chairman) he moved to Charles Town, WV in the state’s eastern panhandle. While much of the new WV-2 is new territory for Mooney, his experience in the eastern panhandle will be important: the six counties in this region are part of the Washington DC media market and require a different campaign approach than the rest of the state.
Donald Trump endorsed Alex Mooney back in November, a whole six months before the primary in May 2022. While McKinley and Mooney voted the same way in 87% of votes during their last term together in Congress, Trump was quick to endorse Mooney due to McKinley’s high-profile votes against the president. McKinley drew Trump’s ire when he was one of 35 House Republicans voting in support of the Jan 6 commission to investigate the storming of the Capitol building. Most recently, he was one of 13 House Republicans to support Biden’s infrastructure package, inviting further condemnations from Trump. In a state that gave Trump some of his highest winning margins in both elections, expect this endorsement to have a big impact on the race.
-Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Alex Mooney.